29/07/07. Why is this so important right now? First, there is a humanitarian dimension which should apply anywhere in the world. In this instance it applies to the civilians of both Gaza and Southern Israel. Gideon Levy in Haaretz pointed out that if it was legitimate for Israel to maintain channels with Hamas for the release of Shalit, then it is surely acceptable to exercise those contacts in order to relieve the situation for Sderot residents.
Second, the basic alternative is to wait for a disaster to happen in the full knowledge that it will set in motion a sequence of events in which both Israelis and Palestinians lose. A reason the IDF hesitates in launching a full-scale invasion is their assessment that the costs would be high (in Palestinian suffering, for which Israel would be criticized, and in IDF losses), and the results in the long term are very limited. Nevertheless, if the Israeli casualty threshold for "restraint" (a fluid measure) is breached, then the ground operation scenario kicks in. Every day without a ceasefire brings that undesirable outcome closer.
Third, one of the core ingredients for launching a sense of peace process momentum and making November a success is to improve the situation on the ground. This applies not only to Gaza, but also to the West Bank, and here is the link. If there is a ceasefire with Gaza, and the political option again resonates for the Hamas leadership, the incentive to torpedo the November process is reduced. The IDF is pointing to the heightened tension with Hamas as part of its explanation for non-removal of checkpoints and non-easing of closures in the West Bank. If escalation on the Gaza border is driving the atmosphere pre-November, then the effect is felt in the West Bank and the summit may well be overshadowed. If there is relative quiet on the Gaza border, then this removes an excuse for not easing conditions in the West Bank, and creates a setting in which a positive message in November may be absorbed.
Fourth, and finally, Secretary Rice's famous reference to the birth pangs of a new Middle East must not be allowed to produce twins: the supposedly neglected infant Palestine in Gaza and pampered infant Palestine in the West Bank. Ultimately Gaza and the West Bank must be reintegrated under one governing entity. Condi's predecessor at the State Department, Colin Powell recognized this recently in referring to the need to engage Hamas. The further the situation deteriorates, the more difficult it will be to remedy. The conveners and key protagonists of the November meeting are displaying little interest in a ceasefire, but this is precisely the agenda item that others – in Europe, the Arab world, and concerned global citizens – should be tirelessly pushing and pursuing.
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