lunedì 6 agosto 2007

Mimicking Oslo

Khalid Amayreh. Occupied East Jerusalem, August 5, 2007. uruknet.info. According to some Fatah insiders, the Israeli-sought accords, which might take the form of a new declaration of principles, will include the following features.

First, the creation of a Palestinian state on unspecific parts of the West Bank with temporary borders. Such a state would have "authority" (not sovereignty) over 95% of Palestinians. (Notice the authority would be over the people not the land).

Second, such a state would have "territorial continuity" as much as possible, and in case such continuity proves impossible, Israel will see to it that travel movement between Palestinian towns and population centers is unhindered.

Third, the core issues, including Jerusalem, the refugees and Jewish settlements, will be discussed at a later (unspecified ) stage."

And to induce the Palestinians to accept the proposed roadmap, the upcoming regional conference will offer the PA a package of generous economic inducements, including billions of dollars from the donor countries.

The Israelis and the Americans must be hoping that with a combination of fanfare, artificially-induced euphoria and especially financial incentives, the Abbas leadership will enthusiastically embrace the final chance for peace.

Then Abbas would be asked to call for general elections at least in the West Bank where he would make sure, by whatever means necessary, that Fatah would be the winner.

This scenario, a poor mimicry of the Oslo agreement, is very real and is being secretly discussed between Israel and the Ramallah leadership.

However, as the original Oslo Agreement was doomed, because of its inherent flaws and vagueness, the present secret talks will also lead nowhere since Israel refuses to take a strategic decision to give up the spoils of the 1967 war and deal positively with Palestinian demands for a just settlement of the Palestinian refugee crisis pursuant UN resolution 149.

Finally, it is imperative to remember that Mahmoud Abbas is not Yasser Arafat.

Hence, it is more than possible that Abbas, by going too far in giving concessions to Israel at the expense of Palestinian rights, would be placing his own political, even physical, life in jeopardy.

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