Public opinion poll gives Abbas slight popularity over Haniyeh

Jerusalem - Ma'an - 22.08.07. The results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media & Communications Center have been revealed:

* If elections were to happen today, 20.6% would vote for President Abbas while 18.8% would vote for Ismaeel Hanieh
* As part of the final status solution, 93.5% oppose giving Israel any jurisdiction over the area of al-Aqsa Mosque and 81.9% oppose allowing Israel to keep the major settlement blocs in the West Bank, while 67.2% oppose declaring parts of East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state
* 68.5% support the return of all refugees to their original homeland
* Dialogue between the Palestinian factions is the most preferred solution to end the current internal crisis
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In the first public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) following Hamas' control over the Gaza Strip, results show that a majority of the Palestinian public (46.7%) generally believes that the situation in the Gaza Strip worsened following Hamas' takeover of the Gaza Strip, compared with a ratio of 27.1% who think that the situation has improved.

On the other hand, more people (35.4%) think that the situation in the West Bank improved after the formation of Fayyad's government, compared with 27.9% who think the situation worsened after the formation of Fayyad's government.

Many of the respondents in the Gaza Strip (43.6%) said their feeling of security since Hamas' control has improved when compared with the past, compared with 31.5% who believe the opposite.

In general, the ratio of those who blame Hamas for the internal fighting in Gaza is higher (43.5%) than those who blame the Fatah movement for the internal fighting (28.4%), while some 17.5% blame both Fatah and Hamas.

A large number of respondents (38.3%) agreed that "signs of chaos" and "absence of the rule of the law" decreased during the new government of Fayyad, compared with 23.0% who think that "security chaos" has increased. The remaining ratio (34.4%) believes they have not noticed any change in the security conditions under the new government of Fayyad.

When asked a specific and direct question comparing the performance of the Fayyad government in the West Bank and the discharged government of Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip, 46.5% said that the performance of Fayyad's government is better, and only 24.4% said the performance of Fayyad's government is worse, than Haniyeh's government, while 22.8% don't see any difference between the two governments.

A notable majority of the respondents (67.9%) do not expect the replication of Gaza's internal fighting in the West Bank and, in the same manner, a large number of respondents (79.6%) do not expect to see Hamas take control the West Bank as they have in the Gaza Strip.

On the public assessment of Hamas strength in the West Bank, a majority (77.2%) said the strength of Hamas in Gaza is greater than in the West Bank while only 5.1% saw the opposite. Some 12.3% said Hamas' strength in the West Bank is the same as it is in the Gaza Strip.

With regards to the detailed solutions on ending the current split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 27.9% believe that dialogue between the factions is the solution, while 26.1% believe that the solution lies in returning to the National Unity Government. Some 23.5% view that the solution lies in conducting early elections. Only 16.9% believe that the solution lies in dissolving Haniyeh's government and having Fayyad's government assume control over Gaza.

With regard to the expectations of the public over a potential agreement, 46.8% expect the return to the formation of a National Unity Government, compared with 43.8%, who don't expect this to happen.

President Mahmoud Abbas still enjoys the largest chance of winning the presidential elections if they happened today. A ratio of 20.6% said they would vote for President Abbas, while 18.8% said they would vote for Ismail Haniyeh, and 16.6% said they would vote for Marwan al-Barghouthi.

It is noted that Abbas has made slight gains in popularity in Gaza (23.9%), over than the West Bank (18.7%), while there is a major gap between the popularity of Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip (26.1%) and in the West Bank (14.5%). Generally speaking, there is a slight improvement in the confidence in Abbas (18.3%), compared with 12.4% last March and 13.0% in June 2006.

There is a slight decrease in confidence in Hanieh (16.2%), compared with 19.5% last March and 18.2% in June 2006. With regard to trust in the factions, Hamas suffered a setback in popular trust (21.6%) compared with 25.2% last March and 28.9% in June 2006. On the other hand, the Fatah Movement gained popular trust (34.4%) compared with 31.4% last March and 33.7% in June 2006.

At the level of the general Palestinian public position regarding external political negotiations, half of the respondents support the idea of reaching a Declaration of Principles and the other half rejects this idea.

Regarding exchange of land with Israel in the context of final-status negotiations, a notable majority (61.4%) opposes the idea, while some 38% support the idea. In a more clear referendum, an overwhelming majority of the Palestinian respondents (81.9%) oppose allowing Israel to keep control over settlements in the West Bank in return for Israeli land in the Negev, while only 17.4% agree to this.

The most salient political position was over the issue of the Palestinian refugees' cause, as a notable majority (68.5%) said the resolution of this issue is "through the return of the refugees to their homes", while a ratio of 12.8% said that the solution lies in the return of the refugees to a future Palestinian state. Some 6.7% support a solution based on compensation.